Monday, October 29, 2012

The October Nine


Most years I personally know one or two of the players at the final table at the World Series of Poker. That wasn't the case this year, but I do have several connections to the players who defined this wonderful tournament in 2012.

Over the last few years, Main Event final tables have been characterized by strong, unknown, young male professionals. That pattern repeated in spades this season, as no less than seven of the final nine could be included in that group. This year the arrival of that group came with a twist, as most of the final nine are cash-game players rather than tournament grinders. While most of these guys were more or less unknowns to the public before this summer, it shouldn't be a surprise that any of them reached the final table. I came up as a cash-game player, and our community generally regarded ourselves as better poker players than those tournament donkeys. Eventually, that core group of online cash players came to dominate the live tournament scene. The players grinding the online cash games these days, the Greg Mersons, Jesse Sylvias, and Marc-Andre Ladouceurs, have to play no limit hold em close to flawlessly to turn a profit. The competition has grown incredibly fierce in those games, and I believe most professional poker players would be unable to beat them. The fabulous Main Event structure always allows the cream to rise to the top, and that's certainly what happened this year.

Whether it was Daniel Strelitz and Gaelle Baumann playing a wild guessing game with two ace-kings in an uninvested 4-bet and uninvested 5-bet pot, Elizabeth Hille raise/folding king-ten vs. a six-BB shove, Wilfried Harig snapping an overshove with the dumb end of the straight, or Scott Abrams playing for stacks with top pair and a flush draw in a situation where calling had more value than raising, I felt like the players who made mistakes - however slight they may have been - were punished for them. Of course, players like Ladouceur and Danny Wong were cruelly punished as well, having done no wrong. The one player who managed to skate through to the final table while clearly making errors was Steve Gee. The interesting thing is that Gee has done it before.

During a 2010 WSOP $1500, my buddy SamENole and I found ourselves at a disappointingly competitive day one table. The table was filled with professionals and there was only one "spot": the loose, passive older dude who kept getting all-in, surviving, then siphoning back down to a short stack. SamENole and I cracked jokes about the guy's play, but a week later, Steve Gee was the only one laughing. Using his trademark "meander, bleed and double" style, Gee somehow navigated a 3000 player field to take down a WSOP $1k for $472k. I read the hand histories of that final table, and Gee displayed a real penchant for avoiding potentially fatal situations, if not much more. Gee has stylized himself as an old-school pro who cannily takes advantage of his image. The reality is probably less flattering, but Gee does have patience and intuition - two qualities that have combined with luck to produce 16.8 million in chips.

Nothing in poker comes close to generating the drama of the Main Event's stretch run, and I've been lucky to watch four different close friends reach that great stretch. This year it was one of my "original" poker friends, Ben "TheGraveWolf" Greenberg, who shot to the top of the leaderboard during the middle portion of the event, then grinded to an 88th place finish. The Main Event is a truly special event for every poker player, where longtime grinders like the Wolf and Paul Volpe, heady amateurs like Michael Esposito, and name pros like Amit Makhija can all justifiably claim positive EV, not to mention the thrill of a lifetime. Amak is one of the most consistent pros out there, but I wonder if he has nightmares about the critical hand in which he folded the river in a large pot to a transparent Ladouceur bluff. Amak himself admitted during the hand that he would have called if he stuck to his plan, but did "not want to bust the Main Event calling off the river - that's not my way." Creating a plan and then overwhelming myself out of sticking to it is a mistake I've often made in my live tournament career in far less stressful situations. I often wonder how the pressure of a top-100 Main Event run would affect me, if I could enjoy it in the moment for all its wondrous excitement. I can only hope to find out one day.

I hope each of the nine playing for the World Championship tonight understands how special this experience is. Sylvia and Merson are the favorites, but every one of the nine has the stack and skill to contend for the bracelet. Jeremy Ausmus - both in game and resume - is the player who most closely resembles me and seems to be a likable fellow, so I'll be rooting for him. I actually played day one of the 2011 Main Event with the villainous Andras Koroknai, a devastating preflop player who sat on the sidelines while I gambled with Nate Silver that afternoon. Koroknai obviously did something in a past life to garner massive karma and certainly has the chops to take this down. Gee and Esposito would be the only surprise winners. It should be quite a show tonight.

Friday, October 26, 2012

Week Eight Picks


Power

1. San Francisco (1)
2. Houston (2)
3. Atlanta (3)
4. New York Giants (4)
5. Green Bay (5)
6. Chicago (7)
7. New England (6)
8. Denver (9)
9. Baltimore (8)
10. Pittsburgh (11)
11. Seattle (10)
12. Dallas (13)
13. Philadelphia (14)
14. Minnesota (12)
15. Detroit (15)
16. Arizona (16)
17. Washington (19)
18. Miami (17)
19. St. Louis (18)
20. Cincinnati (20)
21. San Diego (21)
22. New York Jets (24)
23. Indianapolis (25)
24. Tampa Bay (22)
25. Carolina (26)
26. New Orleans (27)
27. Cleveland (32)
28. Buffalo (23)
29. Tennessee (31)
30. Kansas City (28)
31. Oakland (30)
32. Jacksonville (29)



Picks

Really like:
BRONCOS -6 over Saints

Like:
Colts +3.5 over TITANS
BROWNS +3 over Chargers
Jaguars +14.5 over PACKERS

If forced to choose:
Redskins +4.5 over STEELERS
CHIEFS -1.5 over Raiders
Falcons +3 over EAGLES
Dolphins +2.5 over JETS
Giants -2.5 over COWBOYS
Bucs +6 over VIKINGS $
Panthers +7.5 over BEARS
CARDINALS +7 over Niners
Rams +7 over Patriots
Seahawks +2.5 over LIONS


Lock season record: 1-0
Really like season record: 3-6
Like season record: 7-7
If forced to choose season record: 41-35-2
All games season record: 52-48-2

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

INTJ

Understanding who I am isn't helping me overcome my weaknesses. However, it is helping me forgive them.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Week Seven Picks

Power

1. San Francisco (1)
2. Houston (2)
3. Atlanta (3)
4. New York Giants (4)
5. Green Bay (7)
6. New England (5)
7. Chicago (8)
8. Baltimore (6)
9. Denver (9)
10. Seattle (13)
11. Pittsburgh (15)
12. Minnesota (12)
13. Dallas (11)
14. Philadelphia (10)
15. Detroit (16)
16. Arizona (14)
17. Miami (23)
18. St. Louis (24)
19. Washington (19)
20. Cincinnati (18)
21. San Diego (17)
22. Tampa Bay (21)
23. Buffalo (20)
24. New York Jets (28)
25. Indianapolis (22)
26. Carolina (25)
27. New Orleans (26)
28. Kansas City (27)
29. Jacksonville (29)
30. Oakland (31)
31. Tennessee (30)
32. Cleveland (32)

Picks

Really like:
BUCS +2.5 over Saints
Jaguars +6.5 over RAIDERS

Like:
BILLS -3.5 over Titans
RAMS +5 over Packers

If forced to choose:
Ravens +7 over TEXANS
NINERS -7 over Seahawks #
Steelers -1 over BENGALS
Cowboys -2.5 over PANTHERS
COLTS -2.5 over Browns
Lions +6.5 over BEARS
Redskins +6 over GIANTS
Cardinals +6.5 over VIKINGS

Lock season record: 1-0
Really like season record: 2-5
Like season record: 7-5
If forced to choose season record: 36-33-1
All games season record: 46-43-1

Thursday, October 18, 2012

INTJ


The most successful man on Earth is an INTJ.

Friday, October 12, 2012

Week Six Picks


Power Rankings

1. San Francisco (2)
2. Houston (1)
3. Atlanta (3)
4. New York Giants (4)
5. New England (6)
6. Baltimore (5)
7. Green Bay (7)
8. Chicago (8)
9. Denver (9)
10. Philadelphia (11)
11. Dallas (12)
12. Minnesota (14)
13. Seattle (15)
14. Arizona (13)
15. Pittsburgh (10)
16. Detroit (19)
17. San Diego (18)
18. Cincinnati (17)
19. Washington (23)
20. Buffalo (16)
21. Tampa Bay (21)
22. Indianapolis (26)
23. Miami (27)
24. St Louis (24)
25. Carolina (22)
26. New Orleans (20)
27. Kansas City (25)
28. New York Jets (29)
29. Jacksonville (28)
30. Tennessee (30)
31. Oakland (31)
32. Cleveland (32)

  
Picks

Really Like:
FALCONS -9.5 over Raiders
Colts +3.5 over JETS

Like:
Broncos +1 over CHARGERS
Bills +4 over CARDINALS
Lions +3.5 over EAGLES

If forced to choose:
Chiefs +4 over BUCS
TEXANS -3.5 over Packers
RAVENS -3.5 over Cowboys
BROWNS +2.5 over Bengals
TITANS +6 over Steelers $
Patriots -3.5 over SEAHAWKS
Rams +4 over DOLPHINS
Giants +6.5 over NINERS



Lock season record: 1-0
Really like season record: 2-3
Like season record: 4-5
If forced to choose season record: 32-29-1
All games season record: 39-37-1

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

INTJ

I was just out and saw someone I know and like, dodged them, went home, and looked them up on the internet.

Saturday, October 06, 2012

Week Five Picks


Power Rankings

1. Houston (1)
2. San Francisco (2)
3. Atlanta (5)
4. New York Giants (4)
5. Baltimore (3)
6. New England (6)
7. Green Bay (7)
8. Chicago (8)
9. Denver (9)
10. Pittsburgh (10)
11. Philadelphia (15)
12. Dallas (14)
13. Arizona (13)
14. Minnesota (17)
15. Seattle (12)
16. Buffalo (11)
17. Cincinnati (21)
18. San Diego (20)
19. Detroit (16)
20. New Orleans (26)
21 Tampa Bay (19)
22. Carolina (22)
23. Washington (24)
24. St Louis (23)
25. Kansas City (18)
26. Indianapolis (28)
27. Miami (30)
28. Jacksonville (27)
29. New York Jets (25)
30. Tennessee (29)
31. Oakland (31)
32. Cleveland (32)


Week Five Picks

Really like:
SAINTS -3.5 over Chargers
Falcons -3 over REDSKINS

Like:
STEELERS -3 over Eagles
PATRIOTS -6.5 over Broncos

If forced to choose:
Browns +8 over GIANTS
Bills +9.5 over NINERS
RAMS +2 over Cardinals $
BENGALS -3 over Dolphins
CHIEFS +6 over Ravens
VIKINGS -5.5 over Titans
Seahawks +2.5 over PANTHERS
Packers -6.5 over COLTS
JAGUARS +5.5 over Bears
JETS +9 over Texans


Lock season record: 1-0
Really like season record: 0-3
Like season record: 3-4
If forced to choose season record: 27-24-1
All games season record: 31-31-1

Friday, October 05, 2012

September Top 15


15. Neko Case - I'm An Animal
14. The Airborne Toxic Event - Wishing Well
13. Red House Painters - I Feel The Rain Fall
12. Richard Ashcroft - Are You Ready?
11. Pixies - Here Comes Your Man

10. The Cars - Magic
9. Pixies - Gouge Away
8. Ween - The HIV Song
7. Jack White - On and On and On
6. The Cars - I Refuse

5. Robyn - Dancing On My Own
4. The Airborne Toxic Event - Innocence
3. Fun. - Some Nights
2. The Black Keys - Little Black Submarines

Song of the Month: MGMT - Kids

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

ENFP : INTJ

Skilled extroverts pose an agitating question for their quieter friends: is the extrovert's friendship a product of genuine affection, or merely a result of the extrovert's innate empathic literacy? Conversely, skilled extroverts must have trouble conveying true devotion to those closest to them, those who know just how socially talented they are.